Business Challenges and Objectives

Our client aimed to develop a solution that would support the creation of a Consensus Demand Forecast.

• The solution will include a baseline Sell Thru Forecast to be generated by Sales Managers using Retailer Point of Sale (POS) data that they will own and update.
• A calculated Sell In Forecast will be based on the Sell Thru Forecast, On Hand Inventory, and Weeks of Supply goals.
• A baseline Shipment Forecast will be generated using historical sales data from Oracle, which Demand Planners will manage.
• Sales Managers and Demand Planners will collaborate to establish a Consensus Demand Plan.
• The Consensus Demand Plan will serve as the foundation for a plan for both Finance (without a buffer) and Supply Chain/Operations (with a buffer).

The Solution

TekLink partnered with our client to deliver an Anaplan-based planning and performance management platform to achieve the following objectives:

Sales (POS) Forecast Model:

• Configured Anaplan Statistical Algorithms to produce a ‘Best Fit’ forecasting model default.
• Created KPIs, input templates, and reports to support the process.
• Created a Dependent Sell-In forecast for the North American Sales Team, which feeds both the Demand Planning and S&OP processes.
• Automatically updated Dependent Shipment Forecast with any changes in the POS forecast or Weeks of Supply (WOS) target.
• Loaded 80% of POS data using SnapLogic API in the EDW, while the remaining 20% is loaded through flat files provided by client’s customers.
• Forecast based on SKU and Account/Customer.
• The solution allows Sales Managers to leverage On-Hand Retailer Inventory and collaborate with the customer on a Weeks Of Supply (WOS) target to produce a ‘dependent’ Sell In (Shipment) forecast.

Demand Planning (Sell-In) Forecast and Consensus Model:

• Collated both versions of the Sell-In Shipment forecasts for collaboration in the monthly Consensus Review Meeting.
• Created KPIs, input templates, and reports to support the process.
• Loaded historical Oracle Sales Data in the EDW using SnapLogic API.
• The North American Demand Planner modeled the Sell-In Shipment forecast using levers like promotions, seasonality, spikes, trends, etc.
• Used the statistically generated forecast as intelligence to adjust the go-in consensus forecast.
• The system enabled the Demand Planner to produce a statistically based Sell-In (Shipment) forecast by SKU and Account.

Hyperion Data Loads and Global Reporting

• Collated both versions of the Sell-In Shipment forecasts for collaboration in the monthly Consensus Review Meeting.
• Made changes to the Demand Planner Forecast based on collaboration meeting, and took Sales Manager’s inputs into consideration.
• Created KPIs and reports to support the process.
• Created a Consensus forecast with and without a buffer for distribution to Operations and Finance, respectively.
• Created Consensus Analysis reports to facilitate this collaboration process.

Business Outcomes and Benefits

• The solution is the first-ever for POS and Sell-In Demand forecasting.
• The forecast provides insights into future outcomes on a rolling 18-month horizon, enabling better decision-making.
• The highly automated solution frees business users’ time from data stewardship to data analysis.
• Automation, real-time data aggregation/consolidation, and improved data accuracy have produced time savings and an efficient process.
• The solution facilitates collaboration and alignment on a Consensus Sell-In Forecast among Sales Managers, Demand Planners, and the Consensus Team.
• It generates a statistical forecast based on historical POS data and Seasonal Algorithms, serving as the starting point for the Sell-Thru Forecast.
• The solution serves as the basis for constructing both a Sell-Thru Forecast by Sales Managers and a Sell-In Forecast by Demand Planners and Sales Managers.
• The client expects the solution to improve forecast accuracy, which was a key objective of the project over time.