Overview of the Client
Our client is an American worldwide manufacturer, marketer, and distributor of consumer and commercial products with an extensive portfolio of brands. They employ over 30,000 people across the globe with a distribution network that caters to the world.
Our client’s objective was to deliver a solution that could ultimately help support a process to generate a Consensus Demand Forecast that included:
- A statistically generated baseline Sell Thru Forecast using Retailer Point of Sale (POS) data that is owned and changed by the Sales Managers.
- A calculated Sell In Forecast based on the Sell Thru Forecast, On Hand Inventory, and Weeks of Supply goals.
- A statistically generated baseline Shipment Forecast using historical sales data from Oracle that is owned and managed by the Demand Planners.
- A Consensus Demand Plan established through a collaborative process between Sales Managers and Demand Planners becomes the basis of a plan for both Finance (without a buffer) and Supply Chain/Operations (with a buffer).
Solution Offered By TekLink:
TekLink provided a project team that partnered with our client to deliver the following using Anaplan’s cloud-based planning and performance management platform:
Sales (POS) Forecast Model
- Configured the Anaplan Statistical Algorithms to produce a ‘Best Fit’ forecasting model default.
- Created KPIs, input templates, and reports to support the process.
- Created a Dependent Sell-In forecast for the North American Sales Team, which feeds both the Demand Planning and S&OP processes.
- Dependent Shipment Forecast is updated automatically with any change in the POS forecast and/or Weeks of Supply (WOS) target.
- EDW houses 80% of POS data and is automatically loaded using SnapLogic API, and the remaining 20% is loaded through flat files provided by client’s customers.
- Forecast based on SKU and Account/Customer.
- Sales Managers manage levers like Promotions, POS, WOS, and seasonality inputs to generate the best forecast.
- The solution allows Sales Managers to leverage On-Hand Retailer Inventory and collaborate with the customer on a Weeks Of Supply (WOS) target to produce a ‘dependent’ Sell In (Shipment) forecast.
Demand Planning (Sell-In) Forecast and Consensus Model
- Brought together both versions of the Sell-In Shipment forecasts for collaboration in the monthly Consensus Review Meeting.
- Created KPI’s, input templates, and reports to support the process.
- Historical Oracle Sales Data in the EDW is loaded using SnapLogic API.
- North American Demand Planner models the Sell-In Shipment forecast using levers like promotions, seasonality, spikes, trends, and many others.
- A statistically generated forecast is an input, which the Demand Planner uses as intelligence to adjust the go-in consensus forecast.
- The system allows the Demand Planner to produce a statistically based Sell-In (Shipment) forecast by SKU and Account.
Hyperion Data Loads and Global Reporting
- Brought both versions of the Sell-In Shipment forecasts together for collaboration in the monthly Consensus Review Meeting.
- Changes resulting from the collaboration meeting are made to the Demand Planner Forecast and the Sales Manager’s inputs are taken into consideration.
- Created KPI’s and reports to support the process.
- Created a Consensus forecast with and without a buffer for distribution to Operations and Finance, respectively.
- Consensus Analysis reports created to facilitate this collaboration process
Outcomes and Benefits:
- It is the First-ever solution for forecasting Point of Sale (POS) and Sell-In Demand.
- The forecast on a rolling 18-month horizon provides deeper insights into the future outcomes and better decision making.
- The highly automated solution shifts the business users’ time from being data stewards to data analysts.
- Automation, real-time data aggregation/consolidation, and improvement in overall data accuracy have produced time savings and a more efficient process.
- The solution allows Sales Managers, Demand Planners, and Consensus Team to collaborate and align on a Consensus Sell-In Forecast.
- It generates a statistical forecast using historical POS data and Seasonal Algorithms as the basis and the starting point for the Sell-Thru Forecast.
- The solution has become the basis for constructing both a Sell-Thru Forecast by Sales Managers and a Sell-In Forecast by Demand Planners and Sales.
- Managers Over time, the client believes the solution will improve forecast accuracy, which was a key objective of the project.
I truly believe the Anaplan Forecasting Tool developed in close partnership with TekLink will allow our company to have better visibility into our consumer and customer demand. The ability to monitor and accurately predict retailer inventory levels is an organizational muscle which will pay dividends throughout the organization: From strategy to finance to supply chain. The Anaplan Forecasting Tool will help to improve on what was a very time consuming, manual, and inaccurate process for our company.
Senior Director, Global Demand Planning and S&OP